*Dangote hits 71% utilisation, PMS sufficiency climbs to 29 days, Waltersmith Train 2 to start January
Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market recorded improved supply conditions in December 2025 as higher refinery output and strategic imports boosted fuel stocks, easing supply pressure during the peak end-of-year demand period, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has said.
Data from the Authority’s December 2025 fact sheet show that petrol (PMS) sufficiency rose to 29 days, up by 77 per cent from November, reflecting stronger domestic production, increased discharge into coastal depots, and imports by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), acting as supplier of last resort. 
Average daily PMS domestic supply stood at 32.01 million litres in December, compared with a planned benchmark of 50 million litres per day, while average daily consumption rose to 63.7 million litres, underscoring sustained demand pressure in the economy.
A major driver of the improved supply position was the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which recorded peak capacity utilisation of 71 per cent during the month and contributed about 5.78 million litres per day to national PMS supply. Overall refinery capacity utilisation averaged about 63 per cent in December.
In a further boost to domestic refining capacity, the regulator confirmed that Waltersmith Refinery’s Train 2, with a capacity of 5,000 barrels per day, has completed pre-commissioning and is scheduled to introduce hydrocarbons by January 2026, potentially improving local product availability in the first quarter.
Diesel (AGO) supply from modular refineries averaged about 0.39 million litres per day in December, although production at some facilities was constrained by maintenance and pre-commissioning activities. Aviation fuel (ATK) sufficiency stood at 20 days, while cooking gas (LPG) sufficiency was recorded at eight days.
The Authority reported that average daily LPG supply reached about 5,201 metric tonnes in December, with more than 70 per cent sourced domestically from gas processing plants and the Dangote Refinery, reducing reliance on imports and supporting price stability.
Indicative PMS pump prices during the period averaged between ₦910 and ₦982 per litre across major cities, based on an average Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market rate of ₦1,443.85 to the dollar.
In the gas segment, total average daily gas supply stood at 4.79 billion standard cubic feet per day, with 1.88 Bscf supplied to the domestic market and 2.91 Bscf delivered to Nigeria LNG Limited for export. Gas-to-power accounted for about 0.59 Bscf per day, highlighting the sector’s role in electricity generation.
Market analysts said the December supply improvements signal gradual stabilisation in Nigeria’s downstream sector, though they cautioned that sustaining gains will depend on consistent refinery performance, foreign exchange stability, and effective logistics management in 2026.
Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector has been under sustained pressure since the deregulation of the petrol market and the unification of the foreign exchange regime in 2023, reforms that exposed long-standing structural weaknesses in domestic refining, logistics, and fuel distribution.
For decades, Nigeria relied heavily on imported refined products despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer, leaving fuel supply vulnerable to foreign exchange shortages, global price swings, and subsidy-related fiscal distortions. The removal of petrol subsidy and the shift to market-based pricing transferred pricing risk to consumers but also opened the sector to private capital and competition.
In response, the Federal Government repositioned the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) as a supplier of last resort, while strengthening regulatory oversight through the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to ensure transparency in supply data, pricing benchmarks, and stock levels.
The gradual ramp-up of domestic refining capacity, led by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and supported by modular refineries such as Waltersmith, marks a critical shift in policy focus from import dependence to local value addition. However, domestic output has yet to meet national demand, keeping imports relevant in the short term.
At the same time, foreign exchange volatility and elevated logistics costs have continued to shape pump prices, while gas and LPG markets have grown in strategic importance as alternatives for power generation, industrial use, and household energy.
Against this backdrop, the improvement in fuel sufficiency and refinery utilisation reported for December 2025 represents a tentative stabilisation in the downstream market, with 2026 expected to test whether recent gains can be consolidated into a more resilient, self-sustaining energy supply system.
